In the past week, Putin initiated a new phase in the war against Ukraine with three major developments that coincided with Victory Day celebrations on May 9, 2024. Starting on May 7, he was inaugurated for a new six-year term as president. If Putin completes the full term, he will have presided over Russia for 30 years, or longer than Stalin ruled the Soviet Union. While the confirmation of Putin’s new term will not come as a surprise, it will serve to reaffirm his control of Russia and the country’s war effort, and give Putin renewed authority to continue the war for the foreseeable future, despite the difficulty in achieving its originally stated aims.

The Russian military also commenced a new offensive in northeastern Ukraine, aimed at Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Ukrainian and Western analysts maintain that the offensives’s objective is not to take the city itself but to draw away Ukrainian forces from their defensive lines in the south and east. Kharkiv is heavily defended and would likely demand a massive commitment in Russian men and materiel to overwhelm. An estimated 35 thousand Russian troops are currently committed to the Kharkiv offensive.

Then, on May 12, Putin announced that Sergei Shoigu would be replaced as defense minister by Andrei Belousov, and would become head of the security council. Shoigu has been under increasing pressure in recent weeks—in late April his deputy, Timur Ivanov, was detained on corruption charges, and given two months of pretrial detention—but has faced genuine scrutiny since the start of the war. Yevgeny Prigozhin, former head of the paramilitary Wagner Group who died in a plane crash in August 2023, targeted Shoigu, among others, with intense criticism for the war’s perceived failures.

So, what does this mean?

Of the three developments, the offensive toward Kharkiv is the most significant, as the cabinet maneuvering and Putin’s inauguration are unlikely to yield major changes for the outside observer. On the other hand, the Russian military’s efforts outside of Kharkiv will challenge the Ukrainian army’s ability to hold territory and preserve its numbers as it awaits the proceeds of new US aid. It seems unlikely, at least in the short term, that Russia will actually seek to take Kharkiv, given its size and the scale of its defenses, but the city will surely be subject to a massive artillery barrage and efforts to force the civilian population to evacuate. On the ground, Russia will continue to grind away at Ukraine’s fighting forces and force them to fight on multiple fronts.

Shoigu’s move should not necessarily be viewed as a demotion. The longtime member of Putin’s inner circle keeps a position at the top of the Kremlin hierarchy, and some of his responsibilities as defense minister are being moved to his new position. With less public scrutiny on his role, Shoigu will likely be able to re-establish his elite credentials should Putin seek another cabinet reshuffle in the near future.

Israel expands attack on Rafah as US warns of costs

The Israeli Defense Forces have continued to expand their operations to envelop the southern Gazan city of Rafah, despite warnings from US President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken that it would withhold more military hardware should the Israeli initiate a full invasion. On May 7, 2024, the Israeli military took control of the Gazan side of the Rafah crossing, the only official crossing point between Egypt and Gaza, while also surrounding the city from the east. The IDF seizure of the crossing has put the delivery of further aid in doubt, as Egypt has more pointedly criticized Israeli actions in Gaza, including by saying it would join South Africa’s genocide case at the International Court of Justice.

On the same day, in a move unprecedented in recent US-Israeli relations, the US paused a shipment of 3500 bombs of different sizes because the Biden administration was concerned they would be used in an invasion of Rafah. Biden has also said that US arms deliveries to Israel could be further tightened, seemingly pointing to serious tension between Israel and its closest ally.

So, what does this mean?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to signal that Israel will inevitably invade Rafah, with or without support from the US. Negotiations between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, reportedly broke down over ceasefire and hostage terms and fears of what would happen to the besieged city. While Netanyahu promised that Israel was comfortable “going it alone” in Gaza, he would surely rather attempt to take Rafah with American support. Though the situations differ in many respects, Netanyahu has recently shown that he may still be sensitive to US demands. For instance, he chose not to issue a military response to Iranian airstrikes on April 13, despite the exceptional nature of the Iranian attack. Iran’s missile strikes were immediately followed by a US warning not to retaliate.

Should the invasion of Rafah commence, such an operation would assuredly bring even greater humanitarian catastrophe to the region. As aid deliveries to Palestinians by land, air, and sea have stopped, Gaza appears to be in the midst of a deepening famine. Israel has issued new demands to Palestinians to leave Rafah, including orders that they evacuate the city’s two refugee camps. Meanwhile, the UN reports that an estimated 300 thousand Palestinians have already fled the city along the coast and toward Khan Younis, as Rafah prepares for the Israeli invasion.